Ashes 2015
The End of the Phony War
July 8th 2015
It is noticeable how
the mood among England supporters has changed in the last few months. Three
months ago almost no one gave tuppence for England’s chances: most supporters
and pundits seemed to think that the best that England could aspire to would be
to avoid the utter humiliation of a whitewash, probably with the help of the
weather. Certainly there is a segment in Australian fandom that believes with
all its heart that the defeat in 2013 was down to England’s diabolical luck
with the weather, biased umpiring and doctored pitches; I have spoken to
Australian fans utterly convinced that 4-0 to Australia would have been a far
fairer reflection of the balance of play in that series. Lest we forget, it was
only a controversial decision to go off for bad light that saved Australia from
a 4-0 defeat after both sides hammered runs mercilessly on that extraordinary
final day at The Oval.
There are many
echoes of 2009. England are under a new coach having sacked Peter Moores just
before the series (in 2009 he was sacked just before the tour of the Caribbean,
in 2015 he was sacked just after). In 2009 England lost the series to the West
Indies unexpectedly under a new captain and interim coach; in 2015 they could
only draw against, arguably, a weaker West Indian side. In 2009 the relief was
provided by defeating the West Indies in the return series; in 2015 it has been
a shared Test series, played in rollicking fashion against New Zealand (many
pundits expected England to lose), followed by the most extraordinary series of
limited overs matches that anyone can remember for many a year. Not only did
England deservedly beat the World Cup Finalists, but then won the T20 for good
measure. It was not just the manner in which huge scores were posted at
breakneck pace, it was the fact that England managed to win more than once from
decidedly unpromising positions where they would have been expected to fold
meekly.
And, of course, the
biggest parallel: in 2009 the series started in Cardiff, the scene of today’s
opening Test, after a gap of several years (no Cardiff Test in 2013). Monty
Panesar is long gone and, sadly, looks to be in danger of not having a county
at the end of the season, with Essex losing patience with him and various vague
announcements that he is not being considered for selection due to unspecified
issues.
With the spin debate
in full flow how England could do with Monty now! The Moeen Ali bandwagon
started to grind to a halt in the Caribbean. Up until then he had done a fine
job – unexpectedly for many – in England and then on tour in the winter. Injury
and being rushed back with almost no bowling though has left his a shadow of his
former self. Despite occasional flashes of the beard that is feared returning
to form, there is a fear that the Australians will attack him and force him out
of the attack quickly. Adil Rashid’s success in the ODIs has not convinced his
many doubters – top of the list seemingly being Alistair Cook and, although he
is in the squad, almost no one expects him to play. Most people seem to think
that Moeen Ali will get at least two Tests before anyone thinks seriously of a
change; even if a change is made, it’s not clear that it will not be to go with
an all-pace attack, perhaps with some short spells from Joe Root. Romantics
like myself see Adil Rashid perhaps coming in for the 3rd Test.
Certainly New Zealand did go after him and he came back well; of course that is
no guarantee that he will do the same in a Test match, but there is a growing
belief after Adil Rashid’s good contributions with the bat, even in very
difficult situations, that he is as good an option with the bat and a more
attacking one with the ball who is more likely to remove 9, 10, Jack quickly.
For England the
greatest news is the sudden retirement of Ryan Harris just before the Test
series. We knew that Ryan Harris has been a great fighter against an
injury-ravaged body and it has been obvious since 2013 that he was probably
just one injury from retirement. That injury has now come and England will
heave a double sigh of relief. In 2013, if Ryan Harris had had more effective
support, England would not have recovered from perilous positions in so many
matches to put up winning totals. The difference between a new ball attack of
Harris and Siddle in 2013 and Harris and Johnson in 2013/14 was night and day:
there was no relief. Now, Mitch Johnson will come back to England where he has
rarely performed, with an unproven partner at the other end. There is so much
talk of Mitchell Starc, but not much outside white-ball cricket. Pat Cummins is
hyped to the rafters in Australia, but has played just one Test and a handful
of First Class matches and Josh Hazlewood is also very much unproven in
England. The attack may be as devastating as the Australians say that it will
be, but even they must wonder in the back of their minds how Mitch Johnson will
go without the wholehearted Rhino at the other end.
Australia are not
without other issues. There is always a doubt how long Michael Clarke’s back will
hold out: he is another player probably just one injury from retirement. Nathan
Lyon was harshly treated in the warm-up matches, although Australia won both
comfortably and there are at least as many doubts about him as about Moeen Ali.
Australia also have a leg-spinner, Fawad, who would be a little bit of a gamble
to select. Other players – Rogers, Haddin – are on the verge of retirement and
have doubts about their form, while Voges, Starc and Hazlewood are largely
untested at this level.
If England are not
without their issues – Bell, Ballance and Moeen being the most pressing –
Australia are not quite the invincible superheroes that they are made out to
be.
My own prediction is
that if England avoid defeat at Cardiff, they may just sneak the series 2-1.
If, instead, Australia win big at Cardiff, another rout is in the offing.
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